Estimating the impact of sanctions on Russia鈥檚 war efforts
FCDO estimates that sanctions on Russia have deprived the Russian state of at least $450 billion in war funds between February 2022 and February 2025.
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The document presents the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office鈥檚 (FCDO鈥檚) estimate for the financial impact of international sanctions on the Russian state from February 2022 to February 2025.
It concludes that sanctions have deprived Russia of at least $450 billion in war funds. This figure includes $148 billion in lost oil tax revenues, primarily due to the widening discount between Urals crude oil (Russia鈥檚 benchmark) and Brent crude oil (the global benchmark), which reduced the taxable value of Russian oil exports.
The estimate also includes approximately $286 billion in immobilised Central Bank of Russia foreign currency reserves held in EU and G7 institutions, along with $12.9 billion in lost interest on those deposits.
Limitations of the analysis are clearly stated. These include the exclusion of private Russian assets frozen abroad (eg $58 billion in the US), the inability to measure reductions in total oil export revenues, and the challenge of isolating the effect of sanctions from other global market dynamics.